Some pretty startling numbers over here about print publishing’s declining revenues. Honest and ruthless sentiments courtesy of Colin Crawford of IDG publishing:
In the US, our online revenue now accounts for over 35% of our total US publishing revenues. Next year, for many brands online revenues will be greater than print revenues, if fact they already are at some of our key brands and by 2009 – approximately 50% of IDG’s US revenues will come from online.
People talk of watershed moments? I think THIS is a watershed moment for print publishing — when online revenues begin to exceed off-line ones. Jeebus, when did *that* happen? In retrospect, I knew something was afoot when I got married, moved out, and realized that I didn’t actually miss reading a physical paper. Seems like the New York Times is already making their move to the online arena as well, in earnest.
Scott Karp’s opinion is that print publishing is on its way to die. I think it *will* suffer in an unimaginable huge-train-wreck-in-front-of-millions kind of way for their investors, but it won’t die completely. Much like other media forms, particularly radio, print publishing will be forced to evolve … except faster than anyone has the stomach for (particularly investors, ironically). And like radio, “print-only” plays will find a niche. Really small niches, but niches all the same to survive.
- Think tabloids and supermarket counters.
- Think free throw-away newspapers in the subway and transit.
- And think glossy magazines at your local bookstore.
To really survive, print publishing has to embrace the concept of being “a-media” … that is embracing all kinds of media at once. They have to evolve out of the medium that it was born into, and grow into every other kind of medium that will take it, if its worth growing into (and selling adspace on). Think about this. When your local radio station puts up a website, its just gotten into print (online print, sure). When your television stations puts up a website and publishes podcasts, they’ve just done “radio”. And when print media starts publishing videos, they’ve done “tv”.
It’ll be interesting to see how the year plays out — but, I’ll take Colin’s sentiments on this one. I think print’s change will be faster than anyone expected. It might not be “dying”, but for some, it’ll be just as painful.
[SMUG ALERT] If my rant sounded familiar, its because in my “2007 predictions” the ruthless evolution of traditional (and print) media was predicted in number three[/SMUG ALERT]
February 11th, 2007 at 2:25 am | Permalink
I agree with you, Tony, on the fact that most of all “old media” will need to adapt quickly if they plan on holding onto any of their market. I also believe newspapers will be the first to disappear, and I also agree that niche publications will be the only to succeed, but I don’t think the niche’s will be as small as you think.
I do not remember what industry mag I read a year ago, but there was a statement that magazine sales represent a very large portion of sales for chain book stores. Next time you’re in a Barnes & Noble or Borders, look where all the people are hanging out. I work for one of the largest magazine publishers in the country and our number one and number two books are soap opera oriented magazines and although they were down for a few years after 9/11, sales have been up for the past few years and don’t show any signs of slowing. We also have the lion’s share of automotive related mags and one thing we’ve found is that even though a lot of people are getting their information on the web, subscriptions still remain on a steady flow. Perhaps its because car guys still need something to read in the bathroom. Again, sales aren’t what they used to be, but we’re not shutting down any of our publications anytime soon. Selling them, maybe, but not moving getting rid of them.
February 12th, 2007 at 5:11 pm | Permalink
Yup, now magazines are launching TV channels (online, of course)
http://www.usatoday.com/money/media/2007-02-12-mag-video-usat_x.htm
February 13th, 2007 at 10:18 am | Permalink
I’m not blind to the reality that the print news media is in a time of serious change. But I think it is interesting that the interviewer in the Sulzberger article asks about local newspapers. People still have a need and interest in local news. And the resources and knowledge to bring it to them still lies largely in local newspapers, and to some extent TV. Those organizations may have a web presence, even a very good one, but their revenue streams are likely still very linked to their print products. And that’s because their local advertisers still want and trust the printed product. Maybe the NYTimes won’t be on paper in five years. But your hometown daily newspaper is likely to still be available in “read in the bathroom” form for a while yet.
February 13th, 2007 at 9:23 pm | Permalink
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March 1st, 2007 at 3:23 pm | Permalink
Rob,just go to ebay and search for bride magazines.
March 28th, 2007 at 8:11 am | Permalink
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April 7th, 2007 at 12:08 pm | Permalink
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