So there’s a flurry of activity over Netflix’s “second act”, wherein they’ve released software that will allow streaming movies to your PC. More details all over the blogosphere, but I’m not sure what the fuss is about — after all, how big is the market for people who want to view movies on a PC … in standard definition?
Now, full disclosure here: I say this as a high definition snob.
Also full disclosure — I’ve watched movies on my PC. And I’ve watched high definition content on my TV.
There is absolutely no comparison.
Watching stuff like television and movies are a social phenomenon. When was the last time you tried to play a movie around a 19″ LCD for your friends and family? I did that back in 1995 when we got a DVD player with our PC. It was strange and awkward, particularly because we had a 17″ monitor back then.
Its no different today.
And more to the point — for anyone who thinks there IS a comparison (because, let’s say for example, you enjoy watching movies by yourself), you simply haven’t had the pleasure of enjoying large screen content in crystal clear 1080i (or “p”) with full 5.1 dolby surround sound.
So where does a high def snob like myself get off telling you what he thinks about Netflix? Only because the future is going to be in high definition — and if you don’t have a set now, you will in the future. And its probably going to be sooner than you think, as prices are continuing to fall like a rock, high definition programming is exploding, women seem to love the things (and as you know, women are drivers of major domestic purchasers) and the price of that programming remains stable.
If the future is high definition, in both movies and television, then why is anyone giving a rat’s patootie about downloading movies (only) to your PC? I love Thomas Hawk as an intelligent and gracious blogger — but I think the man is dead, dead, wrong about TV going extinct.
I used to be one of those people who “didn’t watch TV”. Heck, I have lots of reasons NOT to watch television. But the combination of great television shows AND the fortune to own a fully rigged set means I am watching a great deal more TV than I used to — and I’m loving it.
As far as I’m concerned, to “own” the future of digital entertainment as it pertains to movies and television absolutely requires the following
1) The partnerships with major studios to release their content
2) Have that content be in high definition
3) A way to play that content on your PC
And you know what? There’s only one player in town that has (on paper), the prerequisites to all three, and I’m sorry to say to all you Apple lovers out there — but its Microsoft.
That’s right. The Xbox360 is the magic wand in all of this, because its a piece of hardware that connects your PC to your TV, and allows high definition content to be streamed right through it.
What about Apple? Well, although there’s the Apple ITV product that broadcasts in 720p (which is fine, and don’t let anyone else tell you otherwise), its crippled because it doesn’t have the partnerships with studios to release their movies. So far, its only Disney. Microsoft has partnerships with Warner Bros., Paramount, VH1, MTV, CBS, Comedy Central … well, the list goes on.
(also, if such things are important to you, you can’t play games on it like the Xbox360)
(and yes, BOTH of them have their DRM issues, and yes, the Xbox360 has issues regarding downloading vs. streaming)
Netflix? Sorry — its not high definition … and in fact, the resolution changes with the kind of connection you’ve got. Also, its still stuck to your PC. And its only movies.
If Netflix’s streaming movies to your PC is a secret bridge to an attempt to eventually getting onto your TV that’s one thing. But without that connection, I just don’t see where all this cacophony is going to lead Netflix, in fact, like a few others am saying “so what?” There will be an audience for it sure … but its going to be limited.
But if you’ve spent five minutes in front front of a high def set recently, you’re probably agreeing with me too.
January 16th, 2007 at 4:39 pm | Permalink
Don’t you think they have the hi-def download in the works?
“A way to play that content on your PC”. That’s what they’re doing. I’m sure high def is in their cards. I agree with your x-box theory, but I think the PS3 will be the one that takes the prize. After it penetrates, ore households will have a PS3 than a Playstation. I believe the PS3 will be THE device that connects internet-tv in more households faster than any other device.
January 16th, 2007 at 4:45 pm | Permalink
Hey eric,
Thanks for stopping by.
The question is who’s doing it fast enough — Microsoft already has the partnerships and already has the hardware. If they don’t screw it up (yes, insert laughter here), they have a great chance at scoring a major victory for the battle for your living room.
Seeing as PS3 sales will probably continue to lag for forseeable future, there’s been no published parterships to broadcast any commercial content (hey, correct me if I’m wrong here), I really don’t see how sony’s going to be a player in all of this.
In fact, Sony should probably concentrate on getting their units out, producing some worthy games, and try and create good buzz to quash all the negative press they got over Xmas. Selling PS3’s to buy Wii’s indeed.
Cheers
t
January 16th, 2007 at 5:57 pm | Permalink
It’s interesting. Microsoft has the technology in place now, but Netflix has the audience (and stuff like user recommendation data — something Rotten Tomatoes has done amazingly bad to prove one and for all that they are Web 1.0).
I see this as a stop-gap measure. It isn’t a solution, but it’s a way to stay in the game while Microsoft is picking up steam. I don’t think Apple TV will be DOA because of the reality distortion sphere, but I’m really enjoying my Xbox360.
January 16th, 2007 at 9:25 pm | Permalink
I just think the PS3 will be player because it will end up being in more households a year from now than the XBox will. It also has a potential far greater than the Xbox because a. “the cell” and 2. you can hack it and do what you want with it (like run linux). So by becoming the winner and ending up in more households, it will connect more people to the internet through their tv’s. They may be in short supply now, but they’ll catch up. They HAVE to (otherwise they’re screwed).
January 16th, 2007 at 9:29 pm | Permalink
Rico (can I call you rico?),
I’ll grant you that the PS3 has the potential to be in more households than the xbox360, but until it lowers its pricepoint, creates better games, and starts turning around the crapulent buzz its gotten, the chances of it doing that are not high at all.
And just because they “have” to, doesn’t mean that they will — I mean, I’d like them too, just so I can see how exciting it gets … but again, I’ve not seen any partnerships for content, and at the end of the day, that’s probably the most important thing.
t
January 16th, 2007 at 10:50 pm | Permalink
I for one commend Netflix for at least doing something in the online content distribution arena. No doubt, their approach (as disclosed) is far from ideal, but they will also improve it over time. I have been impressed with the level of Netflix’s website technology and social networking features so far…I am sure they will do what it takes to stay ahead of the curve. If not, Apple or Blockbuster will eat their lunch.
January 16th, 2007 at 11:44 pm | Permalink
No question they’ve stayed alive much longer than some pundits have predicted — the question is for how long. I agree with some folk: they have done one thing right in gathering a large user base of customers, and that’s one huge thing they have in their favour (as is their ability to create an experience that many enjoy).
My question is do they have a model that is sustainable for the future — and if they do, I hope that this streaming video model is only a step towards it.
January 17th, 2007 at 2:19 am | Permalink
I think a lot of this comes down to trade-off’s. Watching so-so quality movies right away via streaming versus waiting a while (hours?) for an HD quality movie to download (and dealing with the huge file sizes). Related to this, I think Netflix should mail all of their customers a cable to hook up their laptop to their big-screen TV. I agree with you that most people want to watch movies from the sofa, not sitting at a computer.
January 17th, 2007 at 2:36 am | Permalink
If you calling me “Rico” means that were friends, then yes. PS3 has yet to impress, but it will. The partnerships will follow. I look at the PS3 as “skynet”, if you know what that is. It’s gonna be big.
January 17th, 2007 at 12:36 pm | Permalink
Tony,
I absolutely agree with you. This new offering is not compelling, especially for me.
The only people I could see getting a benefit from this would be the frequent business traveler who has a broadband card from their cellphone provider. I could see that being a great alternative to the hotel pay-per-view options. Other than that, I am stumped as to who will use it long-term.
I think their best bet would be to integrate the software with Windows Media Center (so that users could stream directly to their XBOX 360 in the living room) and Apple TV. There has been the rumored Netflix player, but I don’t need more proprietary hardware to buy.
I also think they should come up with a way to let you take some of the movies with you. Their software should convert the files to MPEG4 so that you can put them on a portable media player or an iPod. They could have each of those files be “timebombed” so that you could only use them for a short time before you would have to check them out again from the PC (that should ease fears of piracy a bit).
Of course, none of these feature ideas gets around the biggest problem which is bandwidth.
sm
January 17th, 2007 at 1:24 pm | Permalink
And Eric, no offense, but Sony can’t seem to figure out how to build feedback into controllers or a decent online gaming service. I have serious doubts that they’re going to just waltz in and nail a video distribution service considering how far behind they are.
Of course, if they do, you’ll only be able to save the files to Betamax, Memory Stick, MiniDisc, UMD (oops, can’t record on those) or BluRay.
Microsoft is clearly the leader in hardware, software and partners to make video distribution happen. Sony has a lot of catching up to do just to make their console viable, so making plans for video is very premature.