Could Ask.com Ever Topple Google? Wait, Let Me Stop Laughing First.

Don’t laugh — but that’s the meme that’s kind of floating around, since Allen from CenterNetworks proposed how he might orchestrate it, with Read/Write/Web chiming in with their three cents.

Don’t get me wrong: making some strategic moves makes sense if you’re content to be the third fiddle (or fourth, or fifth) to Google’s chief fiddler (or, for the comic book geeks out there, let’s say Firelord, to Google’s Galactus). I think it would be smart to pay Firefox, for example, to make Ask.com its default search. Or, for that matter, starting a price war when it comes to contextual advertising.

Heck, as a blogger and publisher I would *welcome* the latter.

But let’s be honest here.

Google owns one thing that Ask will never have.

Or, something that Yahoo will never reclaim.

Or, that Microsoft will never be able to buy.

And that’s the “mindshare” of Internet users world wide for what “Search” means. Heck, for the minds of some people, Google *IS* the Internet. And let’s not get into its forays into web applications, dark fibre, data centers and the like.

When most people think “Search”, or what to query anything, they think of Google. And now that Google’s been in that position for so many years, it will take more than strategic maneuverings, no matter how slick, subtle, or expensive they might be, to change that.

The kinds of changes that Ask.com is trying to implement are tactical at best, but even the smartest strategic maneuverings would never do more than advertise and bring attention to what Ask.com is — and that is a Search Engine like Google.com

Leapfrogging over Google would take some massive kind of shift in what Search means, something hugely disruptive and innovative. Is *that* what’s going on at Ask.com? Maybe it is, but I haven’t heard anything about it. I mean, sure they’re changing algorithms, apparently.

Whoop-de-frackin’-doo.

Let’s say you could prove that Ask.com is a better search tool than Google, well, what then?

It still wouldn’t be good enough. Business history is littered with examples of poorer technologies that still took and never relinquished the lead even when better products or technologies existed. The Qwerty keyboard. Microsoft.

I could go on.

Do I think Ask.com could topple Google? Of course not. Could it improve its share of the search engine market with aggressive marketing and wiley strategic partnerships? Sure. But how much of the pie are they eventually going to get? And are they going to be happy with that tiny sliver of a slice? Will it be a curve of decreasing marketing returns?

But will investors ever be happy being the runty animal in the search engine family?

My feeling is probably no.

Will Ask.com have the intestinal fortitude to introduce something really game changing rather than settling for throwing marketing cash at a problem that money can’t solve? (Because let’s face it — if money *COULD* solve it, Microsoft would have already done it)

Again — my feeling is probably not.

But you know what? It could. So why doesn’t it?

7 Comments

  1. Posted May 23, 2007 at 9:15 am | Permalink

    I agree with you Tony… sort of.

    It’s highly unlikely that any upstart search company will dethrone Google at this point. I think your analysis is good regarding that. The problem is that sometimes s**t happens. And I never like to use never, because never is a long time.

    Look at IBM (probably my favorite example.) A few years ago they were the top dog of the computer industry. A couple of mistakes later a Seattle based upstart has stolen the crown. It didn’t take much. Just a fresh view, some courage, and the gumption to grab some opportunities.

    I see Microsoft currently in the same position in regards to Google. While Google didn’t exactly come out of nowhere, they did take Microsoft by surprise in much the same way MS took IBM by surprise.

    One day I suspect Google will be faced with the same situation. But probably not for a while.

  2. Posted May 23, 2007 at 9:26 am | Permalink

    I also don’t like using the word never — its a long time after all, but I think you’re actually agreeing with me:

    Ask.com will “never” top Google unless there is
    a) a giant and seismic shift in the way people search for things
    b) Ask.com decided to change the very premise of what its about to something “disruptive” and “game changing”.

    Yes, trotting out business aphorisms also makes me shudder, but I’m guessing what you understand what I mean by my lazy shorthand. ;)

    Cheers
    t @ dji

  3. Posted May 23, 2007 at 7:28 pm | Permalink

    Yeah I am agreeing with you, and I’m definitely just as guilty of the lazy shorthand. I’m just coming from the viewpoint that things change, sometimes slowly, but sometimes it comes out of the blue and catches everyone off guard. (Probably because that’s happening in my life at the moment.)

    I reckon there are some other factors that could affect things.

    a) Google make a series of serious mistakes that dull their favor in the eyes of the public. Conforming to China’s censorship rules *could* have been one of these.

    b) Google alienates the people who make money off their service, forcing them to seek other revenue models and ‘recommend’ alternate search services to their readers.

    c) Google alienates the people who give them money by advertising through their network. They seem pretty focussed on pleasing them at the moment.

    d) Big economic downturn… the next bubble burst perhaps, or a recession, weakens them and lets a hungry startup get into a good position.

    Overall, Google is in a pretty strong position, and I reckon you’re right. In the short term they are likely to get stronger, and in fact I think they’ll overtake Microsoft as the top dog in the industry.

  4. Posted May 24, 2007 at 11:20 pm | Permalink

    Well, to answer your question, I don’t think it is going to happen any time soon!

  5. Posted May 24, 2007 at 11:45 pm | Permalink

    mn seo — I would agree. In fact, it was really a bit of a rhetorical question. ;)

  6. Posted May 24, 2007 at 11:47 pm | Permalink

    Ripley,

    Good points — but all unlike or improbable in the short term, as you point out. With Google its just time to accept where they’re going and take advantage of it if you can when you can

  7. Marie stanhope
    Posted May 11, 2009 at 10:47 am | Permalink

    I would like to make ask.com my home page i have yahoo right know don`t like it But i do like what ijust saw about ask.com

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